Day 1
| Mini-session | Score | Mini-sesssion winner |
| session 1a | NZ 35/3 off 11 | Australia |
| session 1b | NZ 38/3 off 12 | Australia |
| session 2a | NZ 61/1 off 17 | New Zealand |
| session 2b | NZ 16/3 off 5.5 | Australia |
| session 3a | Aus 12/1 off 4.2 | New Zealand |
Day 2
| Mini-session | Score | Mini-sesssion winner |
| session 1a | Aus 46/4 off 20.4 | New Zealand |
| session 1b | Aus 23/2 off 11 | New Zealand |
| session 2a | Aus 50/2 off 12.5 | Australia |
| session 2b | Aus 5/1 off 2.1 | New Zealand |
| NZ 29/0 off 10 | ||
| session 3a | NZ 44/3 off 13 | Australia |
| session 3b | NZ 66/0 off 21 | New Zealand |
New Zealand lead the mini-session count 6-5 at the moment. They are slightly ahead in the game, but day three looms as a difficult proposition. The weather forecast is for overnight and early morning rain. I'm not an expert on Hobart's weather systems, but in most coastal places the weather changes with the tide, and the tide changes at about 8:30, so I'd say it is likely that either the rain stops then, and the game should start on time or it continues throughout the morning session, and we hardly get any play until after lunch. Either way the pitch should freshen up again in the first session, with sweating likely to occur under the covers. However the pitch has had a couple of days of use, so it should dry out quite quickly. It is likely to be quite difficult to play on for the first 30 minutes or so, and then for the first 2 or 3 overs after any rain breaks.
Williamson seems to be particularly vulnerable straight after a break, so this could be to Australia's favour. If there are no wickets fall in the first 30 minutes, and no rain round, then it could be a long day in the field for Australia. One real key on this wicket will be the confidence of the batsmen and bowlers. When the batsmen start getting tentative because of a couple that move significantly, their footwork tends to become less assured, and they get in the wrong place to play the ball. The ball moving has a similar effect on the bowler, except that they start bowling more attacking lengths and allow the batsmen to play bad shots. We have just witnessed two days of this phenomenon.
If Taylor and Williamson ride out this storm, then they will be transmitting calmness to Brownlie, Young (who is due a good score), Bracewell and Southee. A sensible batting effort could bring a score in the region of 350. That would probably be a bridge too far for Australia, who will be likely to have to bat twice in the tricky morning session in order to get there. However 2 quick wickets tomorrow morning could quickly turn into 7 quick wickets, and Australia having to chase 200 on an improving deck.
If New Zealand are to win this game the first hour of play will be vital. That's where the interest is for me.
Nice convincing analysis all around. It's a pain to have to get up early to watch the match here in India, but I'll definitely be catching that first session (and feeling extremely nervous)
ReplyDeleteWell, I guess it's better for you that it is in Hobart than Christchurch, gives you an extra 2 hours sleep. We face the same problem when there are games in the West Indies, they start at 3am. It is not a sane hour to watch cricket.
ReplyDeleteWhat's the deal with Reece Young? Are there no other better keeper-batsmen than him in NZ? he looks so shaky...
ReplyDeleteI think lots of players have looked shaky in this series. He seems to be a slow starter, because he has scored a lot of runs for Auckland and Canterbury. He is averaging 32, and was the not out batsman in the second innings of the first test.
ReplyDeleteHe also adjusts well, He has not got out to the same bowler twice in a match yet. It will be a fairer test of his skill in the second innings.
As to other wicket-keepers, I don't think there are any better keepers than him in NZ and I include McCullum in that mix. Young let through no byes at the Gabba, and only one on that greentop at Hobart, Haddin let through 9 and 6 so far. He did drop a catch off an inside edge, and took a ball in the face, but as far as I remember those were the only two deliveries that he didn't take cleanly in the entire match (he actually took the one that hit him in the face cleanly too - off the rebound). There are other reasonable keeper-batsmen in NZ, McGlashan, Hopkins and I'm hearing good things about Latham, but I can't see any of them taking Young's test spot in the next few matches.